Betting on the Wrong Horse

From the very early days of the Jan 25th Egyptian revolution, US President Barack Obama administration and Department of state led by former Secretary Hillary Clinton, has demonstrated a total lack of capability of keeping up with the hour to hour escalating situation in Egypt and reading the political situation. The displayed performance by Obama’s administration has shocked and alienated both the pro-Revolution and anti-revolution sides in Egypt while shaking the image of the United States domestically and internationally.

USA and EU have followed a path that they believed that will solve their long term problems of  the immigrations of North African and West African by making sure that the citizens of these nations wanted which is Sharia law according to their limited vision about the state of affairs in the Middle East.

Many of their so called political Think Tanks produced reports which were more worthy of the contents of Septic tanks that  can be summarized ; that once Islamist regimes are installed in the region, USA and EU will have no further problems of immigration of Middle Eastern countries as the Muslim populations will prefer to stay in their home countries and enjoy the Sharia laws.

Much to their amazement the Middle Easterners and Arabs were not seeking a medieval rule but they were aiming to transform their own countries toward modernization and development . The June30th 2013 Revolution in Egypt was a clear message in that context to the western world and so called  Think Tanks.

For over a decade the USA has been fighting in Afghanistan a war against the same type of terrorists that the Egyptian army is facing in Sinai and all over the Egyptian state. Yet for some reason Obama administration has granted legitimacy to intervene in Afghanistan and Pakistan while Egyptian army is portrayed as an aggressor just for defending the Egyptian nation’s borders and interior against marauding terrorists lead by the Muslim Brotherhood.

The Obama administration chose silence regarding the crushing of the peaceful secular demonstrations in Turkey against the Turkish eccentric Prime minister who turned Turkey in the Journalist’s biggest jail in the world. Erdogan police forces have even shown no discrimination in handling women protestors and shocking photos about have surfaced all over the news agencies and internat.

On the other hand, police and army enforcing law in Egypt by the demand of the citizens is frowned upon and considered violence by the same Obama administration. Obama stood still while the country was pushed to violence by Islamists and Jihadist led by Muslim Brotherhood who are attempting to terrorize the nation with all forms of terrorists acts starting from firing arms randomly passing through assassinations and bombing government building. That was all casted aside by the US State Administration which denounces the killings of civilians and armed forced by the feeblest words and denouncing arresting the ring leaders, financiers and perpetrators of these terrorist

Should the American policies were originally non-interventionist, none could have blamed the USA politicians just as much as no one blames their Japanese or Brazilian counterparts for not denouncing certain acts of violence or others. However, the Obama administration insists on interfering in favour of Islamists and neglecting the rights of the rest of Egyptians and Turks to live in a free society with the tyranny of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and their counterpart APK party in Turkey.


Barack Obama’s major mistake to leave delicate matters like relations with Egypt in the hands of such senators like John McCain  who ruins relations with other nations as he breathes.  . A president whose campaign promised to instill “Change” in Washington have made the worst bet an American president could ever make and lost it. With that lost bet he lost a legacy that could have been his , should he played his cards right.  It’s not a secret that even if the USA manages to acquire its lost influence in the region, it will not be a trustworthy partner to its traditional friends and allies in the region like Egypt, Saudi Arabia, UAE, Turkey ,etc..


Currently, Obama is clinging to the faint hope of actually resurrecting a dead peace process between Palestinians and Israelis and believe that this agreement might save his legacy. Obama still fails to see the big picture that as long as the likes of Hamas still ruling Gaza with an Iron fist while he was he effectively weakening the legitimate Palestinian authority in Ramallah throughout his 5 year rule , he will never attain a peace in the Middle East.

At the same time, Egypt is fighting an unannounced war against Hamas which has been proven to be red-handed in countless terrorist attacks in Egypt recently , he still doesn’t support Egyptian efforts to contain that terrorist group and supporting the actual terrorist group  Muslim Brotherhood and calling their branding as terrorist “Alarming” . One could easily imagine the reaction of the USA if Egypt had supported Taliban or Al Qaeda in Afghanistan and denounced labeling them as “Terrorists”  by the USA!


While Egypt the long term ally is paying a huge price maintaining moderation in the Middle East and fighting a lone war against terrorism, Obama administration provided a life support to an ailing radical Iranian regime through the Geneva accords of 2013 believing he will prevent the inevitable of acquiring a nuclear bomb which threatens all the Middle Eastern countries as well it will initiate a nuclear arms race in the region.

For several decades the international community has attempted to establish a reliable cooperation with the so called moderate Iranian leaders like former President Khatamy and current one Rouhani. These so called “Moderate” leaders seem to take shifts with Radical ones like Ahmedinajad every few years to provide a breathing space and a smiling face for one of the most tyrannical regimes in the world.  Nevertheless, the final word in Iran remains in the radical clerics and their so called “Guardians of the Islamic Revolution Council” headed by Former President and Radical Supreme leader  Ali Khamenei. Accordingly the same Iranian regime expansionist and aggressive policies towards their neighbouring countries still prevail regardless of the denial of the Obama administration and its allies who believed that the Geneva agreement is a great achievement.

One day President Barack Hussein Obama administration will ponder on how USA lost its long standing influence that was exerted in the Middle East since the Suez Crisis in 1956. Also they will regret the influence it had on the Middle East region as a main player especially after the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

Nevertheless, it has to be mentioned that, the American influence was not exerted simply for being a superpower but actually as moderator and an efficient commercial and military partner to the region key countries to maintain at least some form of stability in the region. However, starting from the catastrophic mistake of invading Iraq during Bush administration followed by a series of other mistakes last of which were supporting Islamists to topple governments by any means necessary has diminished the role of the USA as a reliable partner to the region’s  countries. Usually the USA had maintained a certain form of good cooperation with governments and some of the region’s populace held that role in high esteem but Obama administration has lost the hearts and minds of the Middle Eastern region and on top of them the Egyptians , whom even their most Pro-American  citizens cannot fathom or explain the contradicts and negative messages sent by his administration to Egypt.

Obama administration has lost its bet in the Middle East by making all the wrong choices for several years and will leave a difficult heritage to deal with for future American administrations. Obama during the time left in his presidency has an uphill battle to fight in order to rectify the damages that his policies have left the already battered Middle East in but the trust between him and the leaders and people of the Middle is long lost.


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